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The global iron ore prices or to continue to the end

  • Author:pm35
  • Release time:14-10-29 09:54
  • Hits:114
  • Article source:未知

In the absence of massive stimulus and entity lack high return situation, the bank's monetary loosening would be trapped in a "liquidity trap", and the real estate purchase limit, limit the loan cancellation does not change the real estate downward cycle, and with the decline in steel mills profit rate and the four quarter of environmental protection again, four quarter operating rate to rise sharply, it difficult to boost demand for iron ore.

From the supply side, while iron ore prices have fallen to about $80, but still higher than the big four miners in the game cost, short-term benefits and long-term revenue, they will continue to produce, and from the shipments in the high point of view, the future to port quantity will not be a sharp decline, the domestic mines although cost is higher, but the the short term will not rashly shutdown. In addition, the port high inventory will make up for the high cost of mineral supply reduction of the share, the fourth quarter iron ore supply is still in the loose.

From the point of view in futures, supply cycle and bear does not change the situation, the funds will still let the futures premium to the spot, when the futures sharply premium spot, after air need to be cautious, investors should cherish every spot negative spread turn hours of shorting opportunities. We believe that short-term futures prices is in the repair process and even posted a substantial premium spot, this will usher in a short opportunity. We believe that the four quarter of the price of iron ore futures 1501 operation interval for 530-610 yuan / ton, 585 yuan / ton or more attempts to establish a single space, iron ore 1505 futures contract operation interval for 510-580 yuan / ton, especially Futures Spread positive when opening.

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